4. ECONOMIC ASYMMETRY IN DRONE WARFARE A CASE STUDY OF IRAN'S SHAHED-136 OPERATION AGAINST ISRAEL'S IRON DOME DEFENSE SYSTEM

Abstrak

The advent of low-cost loitering munitions has revolutionized modern warfare,
creating a profound economic imbalance between offensive and defensive capabilities. In the
Middle East, the deployment of Iran's Shahed-136 drone against Israel's Iron Dome defense
system serves as a prime example of a "cost-imposing" strategy in asymmetric warfare.
Objective: This study aims to quantify the economic disproportion between the production and
deployment costs of the Shahed-136 drone and the operational costs of the Iron Dome
system. It explores how this cost ratio impacts long-term national defense budgets and
strategic sustainability. Methodology: This study uses a qualitative-descriptive approach
supported by comparative economic modelling. Data are synthesized from defense budget
reports, estimates of the Shahed-136 manufacturing costs, and the unit cost of the Iron Dome
Tamir interceptor missile. The analysis uses the Cost-Exchange Ratio (CER) to evaluate the
economic efficiency of both sides. Results: The study's findings reveal a sharp economic
asymmetry, with a single Shahed-136 estimated to cost between $20,000 and $50,000,
depending on configuration, while a single Tamir interceptor missile costs approximately
$40,000 to $100,000, depending on configuration. When factoring in "saturation attacks" (or
drone swarms), defense costs increase exponentially, not only through missile expenditure
but also through the economic disruption caused by airstrike warnings and collateral
infrastructure damage if interceptions fail. Conclusion: The study concludes that while Iron
Dome remains tactically effective in saving lives, its current economic trajectory is
unsustainable against the threat of low-cost, mass-produced drones. The study suggests that
to maintain strategic stability, the defense framework must transition to lower-cost interception
technologies, such as directed energy weapons (lasers/Iron Beam), to neutralize the
economic advantage currently held by offensive drone platforms.